A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that split the country and unleashed chaos, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the political, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly split population where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the lack of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or activists are willing to participate even with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Both authors two articles that strive for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and social data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, taxes, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," commented the writer. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters claim they support unity but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he commented. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will in the end not succeed but all factions has possesses something to gain from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, urged the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
